Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across parts of the central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward across parts of the Gulf Coast states and the Carolinas ahead of a northeastward-developing surface low. A severe risk may develop across parts of these regions, mainly from late Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based storms is not great enough to include 15% severe probabilities for now. Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that another large-scale upper trough will move across the central/eastern states around the Day 6/Wednesday to Day 7/Thursday time frame. Some severe risk may once again materialize across parts of the central Gulf Coast states and perhaps the Carolinas as low-level moisture returns northward across these areas. Regardless, there is far too much uncertainty in the prospect for substantial boundary-layer destabilization to include any severe probabilities at this extended time frame.
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