SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today
across northern and central Florida.

...Synopsis...
Cool and stable air will cover the majority of the CONUS on
Saturday, with high pressure centered over the northern Plains and a
polar vortex shifting into western Ontario. The main exception will
be over FL, where a stalled front will exist, with moisture and
daytime heating supporting scattered thunderstorms.

Elsewhere, afternoon/evening convection is also possible from  parts
of the Great Basin into AZ and NM. Here, a digging upper trough with
strong differential divergence, along with daytime heating, will
lead to sufficient instability for isolated thunderstorms. Given
minimal moisture, severe weather is unlikely here.

...Northern FL...
A weak surface trough will extend from the central Gulf of Mexico
across northern FL and will remain nearly stationary through the
period. Heating is expected over much of the peninsula, with mid 60s
F dewpoints contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE after 18Z. All
this will occur beneath modest southwest flow aloft, and with
gradual height falls late ahead of a shortwave trough moving into
the western Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak lift and
marginal lapse rates suggest mostly disorganized storm mode, but
isolated cells may become strong to marginally severe during the
peak heating hours given good deep-layer shear. A few strong wind
gusts will be possible, and any tornado would likely be weak and
brief.

..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/13/2021

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