SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern and central Florida. ...Synopsis... Cool and stable air will cover the majority of the CONUS on Saturday, with high pressure centered over the northern Plains and a polar vortex shifting into western Ontario. The main exception will be over FL, where a stalled front will exist, with moisture and daytime heating supporting scattered thunderstorms. Elsewhere, afternoon/evening convection is also possible from parts of the Great Basin into AZ and NM. Here, a digging upper trough with strong differential divergence, along with daytime heating, will lead to sufficient instability for isolated thunderstorms. Given minimal moisture, severe weather is unlikely here. ...Northern FL... A weak surface trough will extend from the central Gulf of Mexico across northern FL and will remain nearly stationary through the period. Heating is expected over much of the peninsula, with mid 60s F dewpoints contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE after 18Z. All this will occur beneath modest southwest flow aloft, and with gradual height falls late ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the western Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak lift and marginal lapse rates suggest mostly disorganized storm mode, but isolated cells may become strong to marginally severe during the peak heating hours given good deep-layer shear. A few strong wind gusts will be possible, and any tornado would likely be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/13/2021
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