SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... A highly amplified longwave upper trough should move eastward from the Plains to the eastern states on Monday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. At the surface, a low over the western Gulf of Mexico should develop northeastward through the day. A warm front is forecast to advance northward along the central Gulf Coast and into at least southern GA by Monday night. There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far north rich low-level moisture will advance across the FL Panhandle and GA Monday night ahead of the shortwave trough and deepening surface low. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF show low to mid 60s surface dewpoints moving farther north into GA compared to the NAM. At least weak destabilization appears probable across the developing warm sector late Monday evening and continuing overnight into early Tuesday morning. The presence of a strong low-level jet and strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow will likely foster enough deep-layer shear to support storm organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow, both isolated strong/gusty winds and a couple tornadoes appear possible in the vicinity of the northward- developing warm front across the FL Panhandle and southern GA. Too much uncertainty exists regarding the quality and northward extent of the low-level moisture to support more than 5% severe probabilities at this time. Additional storms should also occur across much of the FL Peninsula during the day. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker compared to locations farther north, it should still be sufficient in concert with weak to potentially moderate instability to support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with occasional damaging winds the main threat. ..Gleason.. 02/13/2021
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