SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Southeast on Monday.

...Southeast...
A highly amplified longwave upper trough should move eastward from
the Plains to the eastern states on Monday. An embedded mid-level
shortwave trough is forecast to advance northeastward from the
southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast, eventually
reaching the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. At the surface,
a low over the western Gulf of Mexico should develop northeastward
through the day. A warm front is forecast to advance northward along
the central Gulf Coast and into at least southern GA by Monday
night.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far north rich
low-level moisture will advance across the FL Panhandle and GA
Monday night ahead of the shortwave trough and deepening surface
low. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF show low to mid 60s surface dewpoints
moving farther north into GA compared to the NAM. At least weak
destabilization appears probable across the developing warm sector
late Monday evening and continuing overnight into early Tuesday
morning. The presence of a strong low-level jet and strengthening
mid-level southwesterly flow will likely foster enough deep-layer
shear to support storm organization. Given the forecast strength of
the low-level flow, both isolated strong/gusty winds and a couple
tornadoes appear possible in the vicinity of the northward-
developing warm front across the FL Panhandle and southern GA.

Too much uncertainty exists regarding the quality and northward
extent of the low-level moisture to support more than 5% severe
probabilities at this time. Additional storms should also occur
across much of the FL Peninsula during the day. Although deep-layer
shear is forecast to be weaker compared to locations farther north,
it should still be sufficient in concert with weak to potentially
moderate instability to support isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms, with occasional damaging winds the main threat.

..Gleason.. 02/13/2021

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