SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula through tonight.

...FL...
The initial round of strong to local severe potential is progressing
offshore of the Space Coast. In the wake of this round, a
substantial gap in convective activity is anticipated through the
rest of the afternoon. Towards early evening, it is possible that
convection over the northeast Gulf will attempt to develop
east-northeast along the synoptic baroclinic zone across north FL.
Given the stabilizing effects of the lead convection and remnant
cloud coverage currently in its wake, appreciable destabilization
across north FL is questionable. However, cloud breaks are evident
and enough time should exist for weak surface-based buoyancy by late
day. Thus, the extent of the cat 1/MRGL risk area has been
readjusted northward given the presence of the front and adequate
deep-layer shear. 

A final round of strong gusts/brief tornado potential may develop
late tonight across a portion of the southwest to west-central coast
before spreading northeast across the central peninsula overnight.
Most guidance suggest strengthening of lower-level (850-700 mb)
moist advection will occur. This will likely be coincident atop the
remnant outflow/leading baroclinic zone from this morning's
convection.

..Grams/Cook.. 02/13/2021

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