SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula through tonight. ...FL... The initial round of strong to local severe potential is progressing offshore of the Space Coast. In the wake of this round, a substantial gap in convective activity is anticipated through the rest of the afternoon. Towards early evening, it is possible that convection over the northeast Gulf will attempt to develop east-northeast along the synoptic baroclinic zone across north FL. Given the stabilizing effects of the lead convection and remnant cloud coverage currently in its wake, appreciable destabilization across north FL is questionable. However, cloud breaks are evident and enough time should exist for weak surface-based buoyancy by late day. Thus, the extent of the cat 1/MRGL risk area has been readjusted northward given the presence of the front and adequate deep-layer shear. A final round of strong gusts/brief tornado potential may develop late tonight across a portion of the southwest to west-central coast before spreading northeast across the central peninsula overnight. Most guidance suggest strengthening of lower-level (850-700 mb) moist advection will occur. This will likely be coincident atop the remnant outflow/leading baroclinic zone from this morning's convection. ..Grams/Cook.. 02/13/2021
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