SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across a
portion of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind appears to be the
main threat, although a tornado or two may also occur.

...The central through northern Florida Peninsula...

A series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a broad
cyclonic upper-flow regime will move from the northern Gulf through
northern FL and southern GA. A couple of weak perturbations are
expected to develop along a stationary front that should persist
from the northern Gulf through northern FL.

Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F will reside in the warm
sector Sunday. It is likely that areas of showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing, potentially with a modest severe risk across a part
of northern or central FL. The location of the outflow boundary does
present some uncertainty regarding this forecast and where the best
severe potential will evolve. South of this activity, rich low-level
moisture and surface heating should boost MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. An
increase in the low-level jet is also expected during the day in
response to the approach of a more pronounced shortwave trough
(currently over northern Mexico). However, this feature will
deamplify as it moves through the northern Gulf region. Additional
storms will likely develop over the northeast Gulf and along the
residual outflow boundary during the day. Vertical wind profiles
with 35-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few organized
storms with damaging wind the primary threat. Low-level hodograph
size will undergo a modest increase due to the strengthening
low-level jet, and this may support a risk for a couple of
tornadoes, especially with any storms that can interact with
modifying outflow boundaries.

..Dial.. 02/13/2021

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