SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across a portion of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat, although a tornado or two may also occur. ...The central through northern Florida Peninsula... A series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a broad cyclonic upper-flow regime will move from the northern Gulf through northern FL and southern GA. A couple of weak perturbations are expected to develop along a stationary front that should persist from the northern Gulf through northern FL. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F will reside in the warm sector Sunday. It is likely that areas of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing, potentially with a modest severe risk across a part of northern or central FL. The location of the outflow boundary does present some uncertainty regarding this forecast and where the best severe potential will evolve. South of this activity, rich low-level moisture and surface heating should boost MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. An increase in the low-level jet is also expected during the day in response to the approach of a more pronounced shortwave trough (currently over northern Mexico). However, this feature will deamplify as it moves through the northern Gulf region. Additional storms will likely develop over the northeast Gulf and along the residual outflow boundary during the day. Vertical wind profiles with 35-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few organized storms with damaging wind the primary threat. Low-level hodograph size will undergo a modest increase due to the strengthening low-level jet, and this may support a risk for a couple of tornadoes, especially with any storms that can interact with modifying outflow boundaries. ..Dial.. 02/13/2021
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