SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening
and tonight, mainly across central through north central Florida.

...Central through north central Florida...

The primary change to the previous outlook has been to trim the
threat area slightly on the northern end. As of mid afternoon, a
modifying outflow boundary extends from south of Cape Canaveral
southwestward to near Cape Coral. Objective analysis shows the
strongest instability resides south of this boundary with 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE, though some northward recovery is expected into the
evening and overnight. Next round of thunderstorms and accompanying
severe risk is expected overnight as another in a series of impulses
approaches from the west. Extent of northward boundary layer
recovery may be limited by a general weakening of the low-level jet,
loss of daytime heating, and potential for areas of showers to move
inland through northern and north central FL.

..Dial.. 02/13/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/

...FL...
The initial round of strong to local severe potential is progressing
offshore of the Space Coast. In the wake of this round, a
substantial gap in convective activity is anticipated through the
rest of the afternoon. Towards early evening, it is possible that
convection over the northeast Gulf will attempt to develop
east-northeast along the synoptic baroclinic zone across north FL.
Given the stabilizing effects of the lead convection and remnant
cloud coverage currently in its wake, appreciable destabilization
across north FL is questionable. However, cloud breaks are evident
and enough time should exist for weak surface-based buoyancy by late
day. Thus, the extent of the cat 1/MRGL risk area has been
readjusted northward given the presence of the front and adequate
deep-layer shear. 

A final round of strong gusts/brief tornado potential may develop
late tonight across a portion of the southwest to west-central coast
before spreading northeast across the central peninsula overnight.
Most guidance suggest strengthening of lower-level (850-700 mb)
moist advection will occur. This will likely be coincident atop the
remnant outflow/leading baroclinic zone from this morning's
convection.

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