Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some severe threat may exist on Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the
eastern Carolinas and the central/southern FL Peninsula ahead of a
cold front. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a
northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough should be present across
these regions. However, forecast instability appears marginal to
support organized severe storms. Have therefore not included any 15%
severe probabilities for Day 4/Tuesday.

In the wake of this lead system, medium-range guidance is in fairly
good agreement that another upper trough should develop eastward
across the central/eastern CONUS in the Day 5/Wednesday to Day
6/Thursday time frame. Sufficient low-level moisture may return
northward across parts of the Southeast ahead of the upper trough to
support surface-based storms, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday.
An associated severe risk appears possible based on forecast
instability and shear. However, the overall severe threat appears
too marginal and uncertain at this extended time frame to introduce
15% severe probabilities. By late next week into the following
weekend, meager low-level moisture behind another frontal passage
should greatly limit the severe potential across the CONUS.

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