Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe threat may exist on Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas and the central/southern FL Peninsula ahead of a cold front. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough should be present across these regions. However, forecast instability appears marginal to support organized severe storms. Have therefore not included any 15% severe probabilities for Day 4/Tuesday. In the wake of this lead system, medium-range guidance is in fairly good agreement that another upper trough should develop eastward across the central/eastern CONUS in the Day 5/Wednesday to Day 6/Thursday time frame. Sufficient low-level moisture may return northward across parts of the Southeast ahead of the upper trough to support surface-based storms, mainly late Wednesday into Thursday. An associated severe risk appears possible based on forecast instability and shear. However, the overall severe threat appears too marginal and uncertain at this extended time frame to introduce 15% severe probabilities. By late next week into the following weekend, meager low-level moisture behind another frontal passage should greatly limit the severe potential across the CONUS.
There’s more click here.