SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through
tonight, mainly across the central and western Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Slightly rising to neutral height tendencies aloft will persist over
FL overnight, as the main upper wave pivots into the central Gulf of
Mexico. The 00Z TBW sounding shows good moisture but relatively poor
lapse rates aloft, as well as good overall deep-layer shear and weak
winds in the lowest few km. While storms will be most numerous
overnight offshore across the Gulf of Mexico, a moist and mostly
uncapped air mass will remain overnight and may support a few strong
thunderstorms. Southwest winds above the surface will persist
overnight, and will may contribute to subtle lift/warm advection.
Any storms that do threaten the western coast of FL may be strong or
marginally severe, with localized damaging gusts the primary threat.
Although not strong, shear in the 0-1 km layer around 100 m2/s2 may
prove sufficient for a brief/weak tornado as well.

...Southwest...
Loss of heating along with departing large-scale lift tonight will
support a continued weakening trend with regards to convectively
enhanced wind gusts across AZ. Further destabilization is unlikely
into NM tonight, although a few lightning flashes may occur. For
more information, see mesoscale discussion 77.

..Jewell.. 02/14/2021

Read more
There’s more click here.

Comments are closed.