SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight, mainly across the central and western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Slightly rising to neutral height tendencies aloft will persist over FL overnight, as the main upper wave pivots into the central Gulf of Mexico. The 00Z TBW sounding shows good moisture but relatively poor lapse rates aloft, as well as good overall deep-layer shear and weak winds in the lowest few km. While storms will be most numerous overnight offshore across the Gulf of Mexico, a moist and mostly uncapped air mass will remain overnight and may support a few strong thunderstorms. Southwest winds above the surface will persist overnight, and will may contribute to subtle lift/warm advection. Any storms that do threaten the western coast of FL may be strong or marginally severe, with localized damaging gusts the primary threat. Although not strong, shear in the 0-1 km layer around 100 m2/s2 may prove sufficient for a brief/weak tornado as well. ...Southwest... Loss of heating along with departing large-scale lift tonight will support a continued weakening trend with regards to convectively enhanced wind gusts across AZ. Further destabilization is unlikely into NM tonight, although a few lightning flashes may occur. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 77. ..Jewell.. 02/14/2021
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