SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today over portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough amplification will occur into the central part of the CONUS, with a leading wave moving from the Gulf of Mexico across the Southeast during the day. While high pressure will limit destabilization and thunderstorm potential over the majority of the country, a moist air mass will exist south of a stationary front which will exist across northern Florida. The unstable air mass over Florida, in combination with strong winds aloft, may result in a few severe thunderstorms during the day. ...Central Florida Peninsula... Storms are forecast to be most numerous early in the day, when upper divergence is maximized near the entrance region of the upper jet. Upper 60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with relatively poor lapse rates aloft. The greatest threat of a few severe storms would appear to be along the stationary front as storms track northeast along it. This will augment low-level storm relative inflow, which when combined with the moist unstable air mass may yield a few severe storms capable of damaging gusts. A supercell or two cannot be ruled out as well, with effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 along and north of the boundary. While daytime heating will aid further destabilization into the late afternoon, large-scale lift is forecast to decrease by this time. This may act to reduce severe storm coverage, from west to east. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/14/2021
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