SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast
Monday into Monday night. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps some hail all appear possible.

...Southeast...
A longwave upper trough will move eastward from the Plains to the
eastern CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to
advance from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and
Southeast through the day, eventually reaching the OH Valley and
Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent associated
with this shortwave trough should encourage a surface low initially
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico to develop northeastward
across the central Gulf Coast states through Monday evening while
gradually deepening. This surface low should continue developing
northeastward across the Carolinas Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. In tandem with the surface low, a warm front is expected to
lift northward across the FL Panhandle, southeastern AL, and
southern GA by Monday evening. A trailing cold front will also sweep
eastward across these regions from late Monday afternoon through
Monday night.

Models have come into better agreement depicting the northward
return of the low-level moisture Monday, with most suggesting that
at least mid 60s surface dewpoints should advect northward in tandem
with the warm front. Although mid-level lapse rates are not expected
to be steep, the combination of increasing low-level moisture and
diurnal heating will likely foster MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg across
the developing warm sector by late Monday afternoon. Both low- and
mid-level flow will likely strengthen through the day as the
shortwave trough approaches. Effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kt will
support supercells. A strong low-level jet should also enhance
effective SRH along/south of the warm front. Confidence has
increased that isolated severe storms may occur across the warm
sector beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the
evening. Given the possibility of supercells in a favorable shear
environment, higher probabilities for both tornadoes and damaging
winds have been introduced across parts of northern FL and southern
GA where confidence in sufficient destabilization is greatest.
Additional storms may congeal along the eastward-moving cold front
Monday evening, potentially posing a continued threat for isolated
damaging wind gusts.

Some guidance suggests that mid 60s surface dewpoints may advance
inland from the western Atlantic across portions of coastal NC/SC
Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a 50-60+ kt low-level jet
overspreads this region. If this occurs, weak instability and strong
deep-layer shear may support surface-based storms posing an isolated
threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Other
isolated strong to severe storms also appear possible along the cold
front Monday night through the end of the period across much of the
FL Peninsula.

..Gleason.. 02/14/2021

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