SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast Monday into Monday night. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail all appear possible. ...Southeast... A longwave upper trough will move eastward from the Plains to the eastern CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to advance from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast through the day, eventually reaching the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this shortwave trough should encourage a surface low initially over the north-central Gulf of Mexico to develop northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states through Monday evening while gradually deepening. This surface low should continue developing northeastward across the Carolinas Monday night into early Tuesday morning. In tandem with the surface low, a warm front is expected to lift northward across the FL Panhandle, southeastern AL, and southern GA by Monday evening. A trailing cold front will also sweep eastward across these regions from late Monday afternoon through Monday night. Models have come into better agreement depicting the northward return of the low-level moisture Monday, with most suggesting that at least mid 60s surface dewpoints should advect northward in tandem with the warm front. Although mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be steep, the combination of increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating will likely foster MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg across the developing warm sector by late Monday afternoon. Both low- and mid-level flow will likely strengthen through the day as the shortwave trough approaches. Effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kt will support supercells. A strong low-level jet should also enhance effective SRH along/south of the warm front. Confidence has increased that isolated severe storms may occur across the warm sector beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the evening. Given the possibility of supercells in a favorable shear environment, higher probabilities for both tornadoes and damaging winds have been introduced across parts of northern FL and southern GA where confidence in sufficient destabilization is greatest. Additional storms may congeal along the eastward-moving cold front Monday evening, potentially posing a continued threat for isolated damaging wind gusts. Some guidance suggests that mid 60s surface dewpoints may advance inland from the western Atlantic across portions of coastal NC/SC Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a 50-60+ kt low-level jet overspreads this region. If this occurs, weak instability and strong deep-layer shear may support surface-based storms posing an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Other isolated strong to severe storms also appear possible along the cold front Monday night through the end of the period across much of the FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2021
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