SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely on Tuesday.

A shortwave trough should continue moving quickly northeastward from
the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic across much of the East Coast on
Tuesday. Primary surface low over the Mid-Atlantic vicinity is
forecast to develop towards southern New England through the morning
before moving offshore. An attendant trailing cold front will move
off the majority of the East Coast early in the period, ending
thunderstorm chances for all but the FL Peninsula.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Although the cold front may not quite clear NC Coast until the first
few hours of the period, the main forcing associated with a strong
low-level jet and the mid-level shortwave trough will likely be
displaced to the north of this region. With only weak low-level
convergence along the front anticipated, any potential severe risk
appears too conditional/uncertain to include low severe
probabilities at this time.

...Florida Peninsula...
A moist low-level airmass will likely remain in place ahead of the
cold front over much of the central/southern FL Peninsula through
the day. However, this region is expected to be displaced far to the
south of any appreciable large-scale ascent aloft. Stronger
mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are also likely to
remain north of the warm sector. Accordingly, any thunderstorms
occurring along/ahead of the front should be rather disorganized,
with generally low severe potential.

..Gleason.. 02/14/2021

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