SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough should continue moving quickly northeastward from the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic across much of the East Coast on Tuesday. Primary surface low over the Mid-Atlantic vicinity is forecast to develop towards southern New England through the morning before moving offshore. An attendant trailing cold front will move off the majority of the East Coast early in the period, ending thunderstorm chances for all but the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern North Carolina... Although the cold front may not quite clear NC Coast until the first few hours of the period, the main forcing associated with a strong low-level jet and the mid-level shortwave trough will likely be displaced to the north of this region. With only weak low-level convergence along the front anticipated, any potential severe risk appears too conditional/uncertain to include low severe probabilities at this time. ...Florida Peninsula... A moist low-level airmass will likely remain in place ahead of the cold front over much of the central/southern FL Peninsula through the day. However, this region is expected to be displaced far to the south of any appreciable large-scale ascent aloft. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are also likely to remain north of the warm sector. Accordingly, any thunderstorms occurring along/ahead of the front should be rather disorganized, with generally low severe potential. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2021
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