SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z


A tornado or two, locally damaging winds, and small hail will be
possible across portions of north and central Florida through about

...North and central FL...
An MCV near the FL/GA border attendant to a mid-level jetlet
expected to progress northeast along the South Atlantic coast will
likely be the northern extent of deep convection this afternoon.
With the surface front currently draped across Dixie to Flagler
counties, this initial convection should remain elevated amid a weak
mid-level lapse rate environment atop a near-surface stable layer.
Severe potential will likely be tied to convective development
occurring in a trailing fashion to the south-southwest that can
progress within the baroclinic zone this afternoon. Here, an
adequate environment for a supercell or two might support a risk for
a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Later this afternoon
into the evening, low-level flow will become increasingly veered and
hodograph curvature will decrease as the mid-level jetlet moves
farther away from the region, curtailing severe potential with time.
Otherwise, a localized/marginal severe threat may accompany
convection that forms towards peak heating along the east coast sea
breeze as far south as the Lake Okeechobee vicinity.

..Grams/Cook.. 02/14/2021

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