SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with a threat for mainly damaging wind
and a few tornadoes may impact a portion of the Southeast Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough now approaching the southern High Plains will
reach the lower MS Valley Monday morning, before continuing through
a portion of the Southeast and southern Appalachians later Monday
afternoon into the overnight. In response to forcing accompanying
this feature, a weak surface low is forecast to develop along the
stationary front over the northern Gulf. This low will move from
just off the central Gulf coast by noon Monday, northeastward
through south/central GA during the evening and into the central
Carolinas Monday night. Trailing cold front will move through
southern GA and northern FL during the evening, reaching the
central/eastern Carolinas overnight. A warm front extending east of
the low will move northward through southern GA and into the eastern
Carolinas.

...Northern Florida through southern Georgia...

Rich low-level moisture will advect northward during the day along a
strengthening southerly low-level jet with dewpoints from the upper
60s F in northern FL to mid 60s F in southern GA. This along with
diabatic heating should contribute to moderate instability with
MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg likely. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
within zone of primary forcing along the cold front across the
northern Gulf. This activity will spread northeast through the FL
Panhandle during the afternoon, reaching southern GA by late
afternoon and early evening. Potential will also exist for a few
discrete storms to develop along the pre-frontal warm conveyor belt.
Strengthening vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk
shear will be supportive of organized structures including bowing
segments and supercells with damaging wind and a few tornadoes
possible.

...Eastern Carolinas...

A warm sector will spread inland through the eastern Carolinas,
overnight with low-mid 60s F dewpoints possible. Instability in this
region will remain marginal. Nevertheless, storms may develop within
zone of ascent along the warm conveyor belt where vertical wind
profiles will support a conditional risk for supercells and isolated
tornadoes. However, uncertainty still exists regarding whether or
not the boundary layer will destabilize sufficiently to support
surface-based storms, with most activity possibly remaining slightly
elevated. Will maintain MRGL risk category for now and monitor for
possible SLGT risk upgrade in upcoming day 1 outlooks.

..Dial.. 02/14/2021

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