SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and a few tornadoes may impact a portion of the Southeast Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough now approaching the southern High Plains will reach the lower MS Valley Monday morning, before continuing through a portion of the Southeast and southern Appalachians later Monday afternoon into the overnight. In response to forcing accompanying this feature, a weak surface low is forecast to develop along the stationary front over the northern Gulf. This low will move from just off the central Gulf coast by noon Monday, northeastward through south/central GA during the evening and into the central Carolinas Monday night. Trailing cold front will move through southern GA and northern FL during the evening, reaching the central/eastern Carolinas overnight. A warm front extending east of the low will move northward through southern GA and into the eastern Carolinas. ...Northern Florida through southern Georgia... Rich low-level moisture will advect northward during the day along a strengthening southerly low-level jet with dewpoints from the upper 60s F in northern FL to mid 60s F in southern GA. This along with diabatic heating should contribute to moderate instability with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg likely. Thunderstorms will be ongoing within zone of primary forcing along the cold front across the northern Gulf. This activity will spread northeast through the FL Panhandle during the afternoon, reaching southern GA by late afternoon and early evening. Potential will also exist for a few discrete storms to develop along the pre-frontal warm conveyor belt. Strengthening vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will be supportive of organized structures including bowing segments and supercells with damaging wind and a few tornadoes possible. ...Eastern Carolinas... A warm sector will spread inland through the eastern Carolinas, overnight with low-mid 60s F dewpoints possible. Instability in this region will remain marginal. Nevertheless, storms may develop within zone of ascent along the warm conveyor belt where vertical wind profiles will support a conditional risk for supercells and isolated tornadoes. However, uncertainty still exists regarding whether or not the boundary layer will destabilize sufficiently to support surface-based storms, with most activity possibly remaining slightly elevated. Will maintain MRGL risk category for now and monitor for possible SLGT risk upgrade in upcoming day 1 outlooks. ..Dial.. 02/14/2021
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