SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible across a portion of northern
Florida through about 5 pm EST.

...Northern Florida...

Primary adjustment to previous forecast has been to trim the slight
risk area to be focused in proximity to an east-west boundary. A
couple of tornadoes remain possible with storms developing inland
across northern FL as they move east-northeast and interact with the
east-west oriented stationary boundary. Otherwise, a marginal risk
for a few strong wind gusts remains possible with storms developing
farther south along a north-south boundary moving inland from the
western FL coast.

..Dial.. 02/14/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/

...North and central FL...
An MCV near the FL/GA border attendant to a mid-level jetlet
expected to progress northeast along the South Atlantic coast will
likely be the northern extent of deep convection this afternoon.
With the surface front currently draped across Dixie to Flagler
counties, this initial convection should remain elevated amid a weak
mid-level lapse rate environment atop a near-surface stable layer.
Severe potential will likely be tied to convective development
occurring in a trailing fashion to the south-southwest that can
progress within the baroclinic zone this afternoon. Here, an
adequate environment for a supercell or two might support a risk for
a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Later this afternoon
into the evening, low-level flow will become increasingly veered and
hodograph curvature will decrease as the mid-level jetlet moves
farther away from the region, curtailing severe potential with time.
Otherwise, a localized/marginal severe threat may accompany
convection that forms towards peak heating along the east coast sea
breeze as far south as the Lake Okeechobee vicinity.

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