SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible across a portion of northern Florida through about 5 pm EST. ...Northern Florida... Primary adjustment to previous forecast has been to trim the slight risk area to be focused in proximity to an east-west boundary. A couple of tornadoes remain possible with storms developing inland across northern FL as they move east-northeast and interact with the east-west oriented stationary boundary. Otherwise, a marginal risk for a few strong wind gusts remains possible with storms developing farther south along a north-south boundary moving inland from the western FL coast. ..Dial.. 02/14/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/ ...North and central FL... An MCV near the FL/GA border attendant to a mid-level jetlet expected to progress northeast along the South Atlantic coast will likely be the northern extent of deep convection this afternoon. With the surface front currently draped across Dixie to Flagler counties, this initial convection should remain elevated amid a weak mid-level lapse rate environment atop a near-surface stable layer. Severe potential will likely be tied to convective development occurring in a trailing fashion to the south-southwest that can progress within the baroclinic zone this afternoon. Here, an adequate environment for a supercell or two might support a risk for a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Later this afternoon into the evening, low-level flow will become increasingly veered and hodograph curvature will decrease as the mid-level jetlet moves farther away from the region, curtailing severe potential with time. Otherwise, a localized/marginal severe threat may accompany convection that forms towards peak heating along the east coast sea breeze as far south as the Lake Okeechobee vicinity.
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