Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the Plains on
Day 4/Wednesday while moving slowly eastward. Substantial low-level
moisture confined to the Gulf of Mexico and FL Peninsula ahead of
this feature should return northward across parts of the Southeast
Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday. An organized severe threat
could develop over parts of the central Gulf Coast states if
low-level moisture sufficient to support surface-based storms can
advance far enough inland. At this point, there is too much
uncertainty regarding the quality of low-level moisture and related
boundary-layer instability to include 15% severe probabilities for
any part of the Southeast for Wednesday night or Thursday. From Day
6/Friday through next weekend, organized severe potential appears
nil across the CONUS, as low-level moisture behind a cold front
passage should be very limited.

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