Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the Plains on Day 4/Wednesday while moving slowly eastward. Substantial low-level moisture confined to the Gulf of Mexico and FL Peninsula ahead of this feature should return northward across parts of the Southeast Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday. An organized severe threat could develop over parts of the central Gulf Coast states if low-level moisture sufficient to support surface-based storms can advance far enough inland. At this point, there is too much uncertainty regarding the quality of low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability to include 15% severe probabilities for any part of the Southeast for Wednesday night or Thursday. From Day 6/Friday through next weekend, organized severe potential appears nil across the CONUS, as low-level moisture behind a cold front passage should be very limited.
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