SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



A few storms may become severe from the Florida Panhandle into
southern Georgia during the day, and over the coastal Carolinas
overnight. Damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will be possible.

A powerful shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains this
morning across the lower MS Valley this afternoon, with a
strengthening upper jet spreading northeastward across the
Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
will move inland across the Florida Panhandle during the early
afternoon as a warm front also brings 60s F dewpoints ashore and
into southern GA. Lift with this system will result in strong to
potentially severe storms during the afternoon and early evening.
The warm front will continue northward overnight across the eastern
Carolinas, resulting in a conditional severe threat there.

...FL Panhandle and northern FL into southern GA...
Storms will be ongoing along a cold front over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico Monday morning, possibly near the mouth of the MS. As
the warm front moves ashore, conditions will become favorable for
damaging winds and possibly supercells capable of tornadoes. The
greatest risk area appears to be across the FL Panhandle, far
northern FL and possibly southern GA if instability gets strong
enough there. Effective SRH near 300 m2/s2 is possible along the
warm front with ample deep-layer shear. Temperatures aloft will not
be particularly cold south/east of the midlevel jet, but 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Lapse rates aloft will become poorer
farther south across the peninsula, but shear and instability will
continued to favor storms, possibly strong.

...Coastal Carolinas overnight...
Instability is forecast to develop during the late evening and
overnight hours as warm advection brings 60s F dewpoints to the
coastal counties. Present indications are that the cool air mass
currently in place may reduce severe storm potential, namely tornado
or severe wind risk due to effective parcels being elevated.
However, scattered storms are likely, and a few severe gusts or even
a tornado cannot be ruled out. Should the surface air mass recover
inland better than expected, a greater tornado risk would be
apparent as shear will be very strong and quite favorable for
rotation. This area will continue to be monitored for potential
upgrades in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 02/15/2021

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