SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE AREAS ...SUMMARY... A few storms may become severe from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia during the day, and over the coastal Carolinas overnight. Damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains this morning across the lower MS Valley this afternoon, with a strengthening upper jet spreading northeastward across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will move inland across the Florida Panhandle during the early afternoon as a warm front also brings 60s F dewpoints ashore and into southern GA. Lift with this system will result in strong to potentially severe storms during the afternoon and early evening. The warm front will continue northward overnight across the eastern Carolinas, resulting in a conditional severe threat there. ...FL Panhandle and northern FL into southern GA... Storms will be ongoing along a cold front over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning, possibly near the mouth of the MS. As the warm front moves ashore, conditions will become favorable for damaging winds and possibly supercells capable of tornadoes. The greatest risk area appears to be across the FL Panhandle, far northern FL and possibly southern GA if instability gets strong enough there. Effective SRH near 300 m2/s2 is possible along the warm front with ample deep-layer shear. Temperatures aloft will not be particularly cold south/east of the midlevel jet, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Lapse rates aloft will become poorer farther south across the peninsula, but shear and instability will continued to favor storms, possibly strong. ...Coastal Carolinas overnight... Instability is forecast to develop during the late evening and overnight hours as warm advection brings 60s F dewpoints to the coastal counties. Present indications are that the cool air mass currently in place may reduce severe storm potential, namely tornado or severe wind risk due to effective parcels being elevated. However, scattered storms are likely, and a few severe gusts or even a tornado cannot be ruled out. Should the surface air mass recover inland better than expected, a greater tornado risk would be apparent as shear will be very strong and quite favorable for rotation. This area will continue to be monitored for potential upgrades in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 02/15/2021
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