SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across
parts of the southern Florida Peninsula, with strong/gusty winds the
main threat.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly northeastward from
the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic across much of the East Coast on
Tuesday. The primary surface low over the Mid-Atlantic vicinity is
forecast to develop northeastward towards southern New England
through the morning before moving offshore later in the day. An
attendant trailing cold front will move off the majority of the East
Coast early in the period, ending thunderstorm chances for all but
the southern FL Peninsula.

...Florida Peninsula...
A moist low-level airmass, characterized by surface dewpoints
generally in the upper 60s to around 70 F, will remain in place
ahead of the cold front over much of the central/southern FL
Peninsula through the day. This region is expected to be displaced
far to the south of any appreciable large-scale ascent aloft. The
stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow and related deep-layer
shear are also likely to remain mostly north of the warm sector.
Even so, most guidance shows around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
developing across the warm sector by Tuesday afternoon, with around
25-30 kt of effective bulk shear present. Isolated strong to perhaps
severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday along/south of the front
across parts of the southern FL Peninsula, with occasional
strong/gusty winds the main threat. Small hail may also occur. The
marginal deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat
fairly isolated. Any lingering gusty wind threat should end by early
Tuesday evening as storms move off the Atlantic Coast.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Although the cold front may not quite clear the NC Coast until the
first few hours of the period Tuesday morning, the main forcing
associated with a strong low-level jet and the mid-level shortwave
trough will likely be displaced to the north of this region. With
only weak low-level convergence along the front anticipated, the
potential severe risk appears too conditional to include low severe
probabilities at this time. Also, latest guidance suggests that any
isolated strong to severe storms that may develop across this region
in a strong low-level warm advection regime towards the end of the
Day 1 period, should be offshore of the Outer Banks by the beginning
of the Day 2 period.

..Gleason.. 02/15/2021

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