SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula, with strong/gusty winds the main threat. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly northeastward from the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic across much of the East Coast on Tuesday. The primary surface low over the Mid-Atlantic vicinity is forecast to develop northeastward towards southern New England through the morning before moving offshore later in the day. An attendant trailing cold front will move off the majority of the East Coast early in the period, ending thunderstorm chances for all but the southern FL Peninsula. ...Florida Peninsula... A moist low-level airmass, characterized by surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70 F, will remain in place ahead of the cold front over much of the central/southern FL Peninsula through the day. This region is expected to be displaced far to the south of any appreciable large-scale ascent aloft. The stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow and related deep-layer shear are also likely to remain mostly north of the warm sector. Even so, most guidance shows around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE developing across the warm sector by Tuesday afternoon, with around 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear present. Isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday along/south of the front across parts of the southern FL Peninsula, with occasional strong/gusty winds the main threat. Small hail may also occur. The marginal deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. Any lingering gusty wind threat should end by early Tuesday evening as storms move off the Atlantic Coast. ...Eastern North Carolina... Although the cold front may not quite clear the NC Coast until the first few hours of the period Tuesday morning, the main forcing associated with a strong low-level jet and the mid-level shortwave trough will likely be displaced to the north of this region. With only weak low-level convergence along the front anticipated, the potential severe risk appears too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. Also, latest guidance suggests that any isolated strong to severe storms that may develop across this region in a strong low-level warm advection regime towards the end of the Day 1 period, should be offshore of the Outer Banks by the beginning of the Day 2 period. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2021
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