SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late Wednesday night across
portions of the central Gulf Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the
CONUS on Wednesday. Within this feature, a shortwave trough is
forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains towards the lower
MS Valley through the period. A strong low-level mass response
should occur ahead of the shortwave trough across parts of the
Southeast, particularly Wednesday evening/night. A weak surface low
initially over the western Gulf of Mexico should develop towards the
central Gulf Coast vicinity late in the period.

There is some uncertainty regarding how far inland a warm front
extending eastward from this low will develop. Still, surface-based
storms appear possible in the last 6 hours or so of the period (late
Wednesday into early Thursday) across coastal southern LA, southern
MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings across this
region show a strongly veering wind profile with increasing speeds
from the surface through mid levels. Effective bulk shear likely
exceeding 50 kt will support organized storms, including the
potential for isolated supercells within a strong low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the surface low. If these storms can
become surface based as low-level moisture rapidly increases late
Wednesday, then they could pose a risk for a couple tornadoes,
isolated damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even some hail as
mid-level lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the
shortwave trough. A Slight risk has been included to account for
where the threat for surface-based storms appears more probable. The
5% risk area encompasses a broader portion of the central Gulf Coast
states to account for uncertainty in the track of the surface low
and related low-level moisture return.

..Gleason.. 02/15/2021

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