SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late Wednesday night across portions of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Within this feature, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains towards the lower MS Valley through the period. A strong low-level mass response should occur ahead of the shortwave trough across parts of the Southeast, particularly Wednesday evening/night. A weak surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico should develop towards the central Gulf Coast vicinity late in the period. There is some uncertainty regarding how far inland a warm front extending eastward from this low will develop. Still, surface-based storms appear possible in the last 6 hours or so of the period (late Wednesday into early Thursday) across coastal southern LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle. Forecast soundings across this region show a strongly veering wind profile with increasing speeds from the surface through mid levels. Effective bulk shear likely exceeding 50 kt will support organized storms, including the potential for isolated supercells within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the surface low. If these storms can become surface based as low-level moisture rapidly increases late Wednesday, then they could pose a risk for a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even some hail as mid-level lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the shortwave trough. A Slight risk has been included to account for where the threat for surface-based storms appears more probable. The 5% risk area encompasses a broader portion of the central Gulf Coast states to account for uncertainty in the track of the surface low and related low-level moisture return. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2021
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