SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula, with strong/gusty winds the main threat. ...Synopsis... A deep longwave trough will remain in place over the CONUS on Tuesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across portions of the Mid Atlantic and New England during the day, as an upstream shortwave amplifies over the southern Plains. A surface low is forecast to move quickly from the Mid Atlantic into the Canadian Maritimes by Tuesday night, as an attendant cold front sweeps through the coastal Carolinas during the morning and through the remainder of the FL Peninsula by late afternoon. ...Southern FL Peninsula... The timing from the frontal passage remains somewhat uncertain, but at least some portion of the southern FL Peninsula will likely remain ahead of the front through at least the first part of the day. Large-scale ascent will be negligible with the primary shortwave trough exiting well to the north, but weak low-level convergence along the boundary may support widely scattered thunderstorms from morning into the early afternoon. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 20-25 kt may support weakly organized storms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. ...Far eastern NC... Portions of far eastern NC may still be ahead of the primary cold front at the start of the period Tuesday morning. However, convection expected over the area late Monday night is expected to generally move offshore before 12Z, and there currently appears to be little opportunity for redevelopment along the front before it moves offshore Tuesday morning. Some lingering severe threat cannot be ruled out across the Outer Banks at the beginning of the period, but this potential is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 02/15/2021
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