SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across
parts of the southern Florida Peninsula, with strong/gusty winds the
main threat.

...Synopsis...
A deep longwave trough will remain in place over the CONUS on
Tuesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move across
portions of the Mid Atlantic and New England during the day, as an
upstream shortwave amplifies over the southern Plains. A surface low
is forecast to move quickly from the Mid Atlantic into the Canadian
Maritimes by Tuesday night, as an attendant cold front sweeps
through the coastal Carolinas during the morning and through the
remainder of the FL Peninsula by late afternoon. 

...Southern FL Peninsula...
The timing from the frontal passage remains somewhat uncertain, but
at least some portion of the southern FL Peninsula will likely
remain ahead of the front through at least the first part of the
day. Large-scale ascent will be negligible with the primary
shortwave trough exiting well to the north, but weak low-level
convergence along the boundary may support widely scattered
thunderstorms from morning into the early afternoon. MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 20-25 kt may support weakly
organized storms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts
and small hail. 

...Far eastern NC...
Portions of far eastern NC may still be ahead of the primary cold
front at the start of the period Tuesday morning. However,
convection expected over the area late Monday night is expected to
generally move offshore before 12Z, and there currently appears to
be little opportunity for redevelopment along the front before it
moves offshore Tuesday morning. Some lingering severe threat cannot
be ruled out across the Outer Banks at the beginning of the period,
but this potential is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 02/15/2021

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