Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A highly amplified upper trough should continue moving eastward from
the Plains across much of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and Southeast on Day
4/Thursday. A related surface low is forecast to develop
northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states and towards the
vicinity of SC by Thursday evening. Greater low-level moisture and a
warm sector should likewise develop northward over portions of the
FL Panhandle, southeastern AL, and southern/central GA through the
day. Rather strong low- and mid-level flow appears likely to
overspread these areas, and deep-layer shear will easily support
organized severe convection. Strong to severe storms may be ongoing
Thursday morning across the western FL Panhandle/southern AL
vicinity near the surface low. Current expectations are for these
storms to move quickly east-northeastward on Thursday across the
developing warm sector.

Both damaging winds with a possible squall line and a couple
tornadoes with any supercells either ahead of or embedded within the
line may occur given a favorable veering/strengthening low-level
wind profile and sufficiently unstable airmass. With a consistent
signal in guidance depicting this scenario, have included a 15%
severe area for Day 4/Thursday where surface-based storms appear
probable. Some severe risk may extend northeastward into parts of
the Carolinas Thursday evening/night. However, too much uncertainty
currently exists regarding the degree of boundary-layer instability
to extend the 15% severe probabilities any farther northeastward.
Once the cold front associated with the surface low clears the East
Coast, potentially late Thursday night or early Day 5/Friday, then
the severe risk across the CONUS appears negligible through the
remainder of the extended forecast period.

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