SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from northern Florida into southern South Carolina, with a conditional severe threat overnight into the coastal Carolinas. ...Florida into the eastern Carolinas... Lift with an ejecting midlevel jet max will quickly shift northeast this evening across the lower Great Lakes, with gradual heights continuing across the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will continue to push east across southeast GA and northern FL this evening, and into eastern NC later tonight. Ahead of the cold front and existing line of thunderstorms, a warm front was situated over southeast GA around 01Z. This boundary will lift north overnight, with gradually veering surface winds over the eastern Carolinas. The most likely area for severe storms, including damaging gusts or a tornado, continues to be along and south of the warm front from southeast GA into northern FL. Here, MLCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg as of early evening. The threat will end in this area with the passage of the squall line. Farther north and overnight, destabilization is more uncertain. The most likely area for surface-based effective parcels will be over the coastal counties of SC and NC, as cool and stable air currently resides inland north of the warm front. Conditionally, shear profiles will become quite favorable for supercells and a tornado threat. However, if the cooler boundary layer prevails, then the severe risk will be greatly mitigated. For more information for parts of FL, see mesoscale discussions 96 and 97. ..Jewell.. 02/16/2021
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