SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from
northern Florida into southern South Carolina, with a conditional
severe threat overnight into the coastal Carolinas.

...Florida into the eastern Carolinas...
Lift with an ejecting midlevel jet max will quickly shift northeast
this evening across the lower Great Lakes, with gradual heights
continuing across the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will continue to push east across southeast GA and northern FL this
evening, and into eastern NC later tonight.

Ahead of the cold front and existing line of thunderstorms, a warm
front was situated over southeast GA around 01Z. This boundary will
lift north overnight, with gradually veering surface winds over the
eastern Carolinas.

The most likely area for severe storms, including damaging gusts or
a tornado, continues to be along and south of the warm front from
southeast GA into northern FL. Here, MLCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg as of
early evening. The threat will end in this area with the passage of
the squall line.

Farther north and overnight, destabilization is more uncertain. The
most likely area for surface-based effective parcels will be over
the coastal counties of SC and NC, as cool and stable air currently
resides inland north of the warm front. Conditionally, shear
profiles will become quite favorable for supercells and a tornado
threat. However, if the cooler boundary layer prevails, then the
severe risk will be greatly mitigated.

For more information for parts of FL, see mesoscale discussions 96
and 97.

..Jewell.. 02/16/2021

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