SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/gusty winds are possible with early day thunderstorms over south Florida. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough over the East will pivot northeast across the Mid Atlantic during the day, with rising heights over Florida. To the west, a secondary upper jet will dive southeastward across AZ and toward the Rio Grande Valley, with increasing lift across the southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will move across the northeastern states with a cold front exiting the Outer Banks of NC early in the day. This front will linger over southern FL through midday, where low-level moisture may aid a few strong thunderstorms through late morning. ...South Florida... Forecast soundings show dewpoints near 70 F ahead of the cold front, and relatively moist profiles up through 700 mb. While unstable, lapse rates aloft will be poor, with less than 6.0 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer. Further, there will minimal heating of the boundary layer, and little support for lift (and thus organization) other than the shallow convergence. In addition, the surface trough is forecast to fill during the day, with veering low-level winds reducing SRH with time. Therefore, only isolated strong/marginally severe gusts are expected. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/16/2021
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