SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/gusty winds are possible with early day
thunderstorms over south Florida.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough over the East will pivot northeast across
the Mid Atlantic during the day, with rising heights over Florida.
To the west, a secondary upper jet will dive southeastward across AZ
and toward the Rio Grande Valley, with increasing lift across the
southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will move across the
northeastern states with a cold front exiting the Outer Banks of NC
early in the day. This front will linger over southern FL through
midday, where low-level moisture may aid a few strong thunderstorms
through late morning.

...South Florida...
Forecast soundings show dewpoints near 70 F ahead of the cold front,
and relatively moist profiles up through 700 mb. While unstable,
lapse rates aloft will be poor, with less than 6.0 C/km in the
700-500 mb layer. Further, there will minimal heating of the
boundary layer, and little support for lift (and thus organization)
other than the shallow convergence. In addition, the surface trough
is forecast to fill during the day, with veering low-level winds
reducing SRH with time. Therefore, only isolated strong/marginally
severe gusts are expected.

..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/16/2021

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