SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur beginning late Wednesday
afternoon and continuing through the night across portions of the
central Gulf Coast. A couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps some hail all appear possible.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the
CONUS on Wednesday. Within this feature, a low-amplitude shortwave
trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains towards
the lower MS Valley through the period. A strong low-level mass
response should occur ahead of the shortwave trough across parts of
the Southeast. A weak surface low initially over the western Gulf of
Mexico should develop towards the central Gulf Coast vicinity
Wednesday evening/night. A warm front attendant to this low will
likely move onshore across parts of coastal southeastern LA,
southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle late in the period.

There is still some uncertainty regarding how far north both the
surface low and warm front will develop Wednesday night. If low to
mid 60s surface dewpoints can advance inland, then weak but
sufficient boundary-layer instability should develop to support
surface-based storms. Effective bulk shear of 50+ kt will likely
foster organized convection, while a strong southerly low-level jet
should enhance 0-3 km SRH and updraft rotation. A broken line of
storms may form near the surface low late Wednesday afternoon across
south-central LA, and subsequently spread east-northeastward across
the central Gulf Coast through the evening and overnight hours in
tandem with a cold front. A couple supercells may also develop ahead
of the line in a strong low-level warm advection regime. The main
uncertainty continues to be whether or not storms will become
surface-based as they move quickly across the weakly unstable warm
sector. Regardless, the presence of strong low- and mid-level flow
suggests a threat for isolated damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes. Some large hail may also occur with any elevated
supercells, as mid-level lapse rates gradually steepen with the
approach of the shortwave trough.

..Gleason.. 02/16/2021

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