SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur beginning late Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the night across portions of the central Gulf Coast. A couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail all appear possible. ...Central Gulf Coast... A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Within this feature, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains towards the lower MS Valley through the period. A strong low-level mass response should occur ahead of the shortwave trough across parts of the Southeast. A weak surface low initially over the western Gulf of Mexico should develop towards the central Gulf Coast vicinity Wednesday evening/night. A warm front attendant to this low will likely move onshore across parts of coastal southeastern LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle late in the period. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far north both the surface low and warm front will develop Wednesday night. If low to mid 60s surface dewpoints can advance inland, then weak but sufficient boundary-layer instability should develop to support surface-based storms. Effective bulk shear of 50+ kt will likely foster organized convection, while a strong southerly low-level jet should enhance 0-3 km SRH and updraft rotation. A broken line of storms may form near the surface low late Wednesday afternoon across south-central LA, and subsequently spread east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast through the evening and overnight hours in tandem with a cold front. A couple supercells may also develop ahead of the line in a strong low-level warm advection regime. The main uncertainty continues to be whether or not storms will become surface-based as they move quickly across the weakly unstable warm sector. Regardless, the presence of strong low- and mid-level flow suggests a threat for isolated damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. Some large hail may also occur with any elevated supercells, as mid-level lapse rates gradually steepen with the approach of the shortwave trough. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2021
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