SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Southeast on Thursday.

...Southeast...
A large-scale, highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward
from the Plains to the MS Valley on Thursday. A belt of strong
southwesterly mid/upper-level winds will likely exist over parts of
the Southeast through much of the period. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning near coastal AL and
the western FL Panhandle in the vicinity of a surface warm front.
Current expectations are for a weak surface low to develop
northeastward from this region into central/eastern GA by early
Thursday evening. Low-level moisture return should also occur across
much of the FL Panhandle into southern and perhaps central GA as the
warm front also lifts northward. A strong, potentially 50+ kt
low-level jet should be in place over this region. Enhanced
mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will be more than
adequate to support organized severe convection.

The primary limiting factor appears to be instability, which may be
rather weak owing to fairly poor mid-level lapse rates and only
modest diurnal heating across the warm sector. Even so, this weak
instability will probably be enough for surface-based storms.
Convection should increase in coverage and intensity through
Thursday afternoon along an eastward-moving cold front attendant to
the surface low, with additional storms possibly developing across
the open warm sector. Greatest potential for at least isolated
severe storms appears to be over parts of the FL Panhandle,
southeastern AL, and southern/central GA, where mid to upper 60s
surface dewpoints should be present. Given the strong low-level jet
and potential for storms to congeal into a line along the cold
front, at least isolated damaging wind gusts should be a threat.
Some low-level hodograph curvature should also prove favorable for a
couple tornadoes, especially if any discrete supercells ahead of the
line can interact with the warm front. Boundary-layer instability is
forecast to become less with eastward extent into north
FL/southeastern GA and the Carolinas. But, an isolated threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms may persist Thursday evening/night
across parts of central/eastern SC and coastal NC along/south of the
surface low and warm front.

..Gleason.. 02/16/2021

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