SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast on Thursday. ...Southeast... A large-scale, highly amplified upper trough should advance eastward from the Plains to the MS Valley on Thursday. A belt of strong southwesterly mid/upper-level winds will likely exist over parts of the Southeast through much of the period. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning near coastal AL and the western FL Panhandle in the vicinity of a surface warm front. Current expectations are for a weak surface low to develop northeastward from this region into central/eastern GA by early Thursday evening. Low-level moisture return should also occur across much of the FL Panhandle into southern and perhaps central GA as the warm front also lifts northward. A strong, potentially 50+ kt low-level jet should be in place over this region. Enhanced mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will be more than adequate to support organized severe convection. The primary limiting factor appears to be instability, which may be rather weak owing to fairly poor mid-level lapse rates and only modest diurnal heating across the warm sector. Even so, this weak instability will probably be enough for surface-based storms. Convection should increase in coverage and intensity through Thursday afternoon along an eastward-moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with additional storms possibly developing across the open warm sector. Greatest potential for at least isolated severe storms appears to be over parts of the FL Panhandle, southeastern AL, and southern/central GA, where mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should be present. Given the strong low-level jet and potential for storms to congeal into a line along the cold front, at least isolated damaging wind gusts should be a threat. Some low-level hodograph curvature should also prove favorable for a couple tornadoes, especially if any discrete supercells ahead of the line can interact with the warm front. Boundary-layer instability is forecast to become less with eastward extent into north FL/southeastern GA and the Carolinas. But, an isolated threat for strong to severe thunderstorms may persist Thursday evening/night across parts of central/eastern SC and coastal NC along/south of the surface low and warm front. ..Gleason.. 02/16/2021
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