SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z


The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears negligible
through tonight.

...Southeast FL...
As advertised in the prior outlook, low-level winds have weakened
and veered per recent AMX VWP data with a pronounced weakness in
mid-level flow around 500 mb. This suggests the risk for additional
supercells will remain negligible. Some uptick in thunderstorm
coverage should occur this afternoon as the arctic front settles
south before stalling. Potential will exist for small hail in the
deepest updrafts given moderate buoyancy and moderate speed shear
from 400 to 250 mb. Hail-laden downdrafts may aid in a few
microbursts capable of strong wind gusts.

..Grams.. 02/16/2021

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