SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur beginning late Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the night across portions of the central Gulf Coast. A couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some hail all appear possible. ...Central Gulf Coast... A large-scale upper trough centered over the High Plains will deepen on Wednesday as an embedded shortwave impulse pivots east from the lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico to northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley in TX. Smaller perturbations will eject across the central Gulf Coast vicinity during the afternoon and into the overnight hours ahead of the main upper wave. This will induce weak surface low/trough development from coastal LA to the western FL peninsula during the period. Low level southerly flow ahead of this surface low/trough will allow low-to-mid-60s F dewpoints to encroach along the immediate coastal vicinity from southeast LA eastward to southern AL, northern FL and southern GA. The warm front is not forecast to surge too far north across the region, resulting in a confined warm sector near the coast. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but the influx of low level moisture will allow for weak destabilization across the narrow warm sector. Elevated thunderstorms will likely increase by mid-afternoon near the trailing surface cold front across southern LA and southwest MS. As this line of convection shifts eastward into better moisture and greater instability during the late afternoon and evening, the severe threat will increase across southeast LA into southern MS. Strong low level winds could result in locally damaging gusts, even in somewhat elevated convection close to the triple point. Near the immediate coast where surface-based instability is more likely, large, curved hodographs suggest tornado potential will exist both within line segments and any semi-discrete cells that develop. The severe threat will spread eastward toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle during the overnight hours, with a continued threat for isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2021
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