SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur beginning late Wednesday
afternoon and continuing through the night across portions of the
central Gulf Coast. A couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps some hail all appear possible.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A large-scale upper trough centered over the High Plains will deepen
on Wednesday as an embedded shortwave impulse pivots east from the
lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico to northeast Mexico and the Rio
Grande Valley in TX. Smaller perturbations will eject across the
central Gulf Coast vicinity during the afternoon and into the
overnight hours ahead of the main upper wave. This will induce weak
surface low/trough development from coastal LA to the western FL
peninsula during the period. Low level southerly flow ahead of this
surface low/trough will allow low-to-mid-60s F dewpoints to encroach
along the immediate coastal vicinity from southeast LA eastward to
southern AL, northern FL and southern GA. The warm front is not
forecast to surge too far north across the region, resulting in a
confined warm sector near the coast.

Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but the influx of low level
moisture will allow for weak destabilization across the narrow warm
sector. Elevated thunderstorms will likely increase by mid-afternoon
near the trailing surface cold front across southern LA and
southwest MS. As this line of convection shifts eastward into better
moisture and greater instability during the late afternoon and
evening, the severe threat will increase across southeast LA into
southern MS. Strong low level winds could result in locally damaging
gusts, even in somewhat elevated convection close to the triple
point. Near the immediate coast where surface-based instability is
more likely, large, curved hodographs suggest tornado potential will
exist both within line segments and any semi-discrete cells that
develop. The severe threat will spread eastward toward southern AL
and the western FL Panhandle during the overnight hours, with a
continued threat for isolated damaging gusts and a couple of
tornadoes.

..Leitman.. 02/16/2021

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