SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears negligible
through tonight.

...20z Update...

Only minor changes have been made to the 10% General Thunderstorm
lines across southern FL and parts of NM/TX. These changes are based
on current observations and latest trends in short-term guidance and
CAMs. A couple of strong storms will remain possible near the
southern/southeastern FL coast, but overall severe potential remains
low.

..Leitman.. 02/16/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/

...Southeast FL...
As advertised in the prior outlook, low-level winds have weakened
and veered per recent AMX VWP data with a pronounced weakness in
mid-level flow around 500 mb. This suggests the risk for additional
supercells will remain negligible. Some uptick in thunderstorm
coverage should occur this afternoon as the arctic front settles
south before stalling. Potential will exist for small hail in the
deepest updrafts given moderate buoyancy and moderate speed shear
from 400 to 250 mb. Hail-laden downdrafts may aid in a few
microbursts capable of strong wind gusts.

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