SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears negligible through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the 10% General Thunderstorm lines across southern FL and parts of NM/TX. These changes are based on current observations and latest trends in short-term guidance and CAMs. A couple of strong storms will remain possible near the southern/southeastern FL coast, but overall severe potential remains low. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/ ...Southeast FL... As advertised in the prior outlook, low-level winds have weakened and veered per recent AMX VWP data with a pronounced weakness in mid-level flow around 500 mb. This suggests the risk for additional supercells will remain negligible. Some uptick in thunderstorm coverage should occur this afternoon as the arctic front settles south before stalling. Potential will exist for small hail in the deepest updrafts given moderate buoyancy and moderate speed shear from 400 to 250 mb. Hail-laden downdrafts may aid in a few microbursts capable of strong wind gusts.
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