SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Friday across the Florida Peninsula
and coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Organized
severe thunderstorms appear unlikely at this time.

...Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will move southeastward across much of the FL Peninsula
through the day as a highly amplified upper trough continues
advancing over the eastern CONUS. Although low-level moisture is
expected to increase ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula,
forecast soundings across this region show very poor mid-level lapse
rates, which will likely limit instability. Low-level flow should
also veer to southwesterly ahead of the front, with only weak
convergence expected. Primary large-scale ascent associated with the
upper trough is forecast to remain generally to the northwest of the
FL Peninsula through the day, and it remains uncertain how much
convective development will actually occur along the front. Still,
strong flow at mid-levels will be present, and a strong wind gust
cannot be entirely ruled out if storms form. But, given all the
previously mentioned limiting factors, the potential for isolated
strong/gusty winds across any portion of the Florida Peninsula
appears too uncertain/conditional to include low severe
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 02/17/2021

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