SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Friday across the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely at this time. ...Florida Peninsula... A cold front will move southeastward across much of the FL Peninsula through the day as a highly amplified upper trough continues advancing over the eastern CONUS. Although low-level moisture is expected to increase ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula, forecast soundings across this region show very poor mid-level lapse rates, which will likely limit instability. Low-level flow should also veer to southwesterly ahead of the front, with only weak convergence expected. Primary large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough is forecast to remain generally to the northwest of the FL Peninsula through the day, and it remains uncertain how much convective development will actually occur along the front. Still, strong flow at mid-levels will be present, and a strong wind gust cannot be entirely ruled out if storms form. But, given all the previously mentioned limiting factors, the potential for isolated strong/gusty winds across any portion of the Florida Peninsula appears too uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/17/2021
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