SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast on Thursday. A couple tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these storms. ...Southeast vicinity... A weak surface low near the western FL Peninsula Thursday morning will drift east/northeast across northern FL/southern GA through the period. Secondary cyclogenesis will occur offshore from the Mid-Atlantic beginning late Thursday afternoon. A warm front will lift northward across southern GA, and just inland from the SC/NC coast. As the weak low over northern FL shift northeast and stronger cyclogenesis begins offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, a cold front will shift east/southeast during the afternoon and evening. The cold front should move offshore the Carolinas coast by around 00z, and the GA coast by 06z, before more quickly dropping southeast across northern FL overnight. Most convection is expected to be somewhat elevated. This is in part to an elevated warm layer between the surface and 850 mb, limiting surface-based instability. Additionally, deep layer flow will largely be parallel to the southeastward-advancing cold front. As a result, storms could become quickly undercut by the front. Widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit surface heating. As midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, this ultimately will result in weak destabilization, with MLCAPE values generally less than 500 J/kg, though some pockets near 750 J/kg are possible closer to the GA/southern SC coast. While instability will be limited, strong low level flow will exist, with a 40-50 kt low level jet in place. Strong shear will help compensate for weaker instability, resulting in isolated strong-to-severe organized cells and line segments. A greater relative severe risk may exist near the warm front, where SRH will be enhanced, leading to somewhat larger and more curved low level hodographs. However, surface winds will not be very strong, and convergence along the boundary rather weak. As a result, the overall tornado threat is somewhat conditional. While surface winds will be weak, overall strong low/mid level flow could result in isolated damaging gusts through late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2021
There’s more click here.