SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Southeast on Thursday. A couple tornadoes and isolated damaging
wind gusts will be the main hazards with these storms.

...Southeast vicinity...

A weak surface low near the western FL Peninsula Thursday morning
will drift east/northeast across northern FL/southern GA through the
period. Secondary cyclogenesis will occur offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic beginning late Thursday afternoon. A warm front will
lift northward across southern GA, and just inland from the SC/NC
coast. As the weak low over northern FL shift northeast and stronger
cyclogenesis begins offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast, a cold front
will shift east/southeast during the afternoon and evening. The cold
front should move offshore the Carolinas coast by around 00z, and
the GA coast by 06z, before more quickly dropping southeast across
northern FL overnight. 

Most convection is expected to be somewhat elevated. This is in part
to an elevated warm layer between the surface and 850 mb, limiting
surface-based instability. Additionally, deep layer flow will
largely be parallel to the southeastward-advancing cold front. As a
result, storms could become quickly undercut by the front.
Widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit
surface heating. As midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, this
ultimately will result in weak destabilization, with MLCAPE values
generally less than 500 J/kg, though some pockets near 750 J/kg are
possible closer to the GA/southern SC coast. While instability will
be limited, strong low level flow will exist, with a 40-50 kt low
level jet in place. Strong shear will help compensate for weaker
instability, resulting in isolated strong-to-severe organized cells
and line segments. A greater relative severe risk may exist near the
warm front, where SRH will be enhanced, leading to somewhat larger
and more curved low level hodographs. However, surface winds will
not be very strong, and convergence along the boundary rather weak.
As a result, the overall tornado threat is somewhat conditional.
While surface winds will be weak, overall strong low/mid level flow
could result in isolated damaging gusts through late afternoon/early
evening.

..Leitman.. 02/17/2021

Read more
There’s more click here.

Comments are closed.