SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTH GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible through mid-evening across the Florida Panhandle and south Georgia. ...FL Panhandle to south GA... Categorical risk areas have been mainly adjusted to decrease the western and northern extent with a persistent, low probability tornado environment expected to continue into this evening. Overall lightning trends have decreased somewhat through late morning within a swath of scattered convection that is elevated from the eastern Carolinas to surface-based over the northeast Gulf. The surface warm sector characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dew points resides across the central to eastern Panhandle and north FL into a portion of south-central to southeast GA. A lack of stratus in north FL to southeast GA will result in more robust boundary-layer heating and the front reaching the Savannah to southwest GA vicinity before oscillating back south later today. This heating will likely be necessary to aid in sustaining surface-based thunderstorm redevelopment given the weak mid-level lapse rates evident in 12Z observed soundings across FL. Low-level southwesterlies should be strongest at present and slowly subside into this evening, but at least 40 kt flow will likely persist through late afternoon. With a lack of cyclogenesis, low-level hodographs, while adequate for supercell development, are unlikely to broadly improve. This suggests the severe threat may remain conditional, and require convection to develop/spread towards the warmer boundary layer farther east. A weakening trend should ensue after sunset as the boundary layer cools and low-level hodographs become increasingly marginal. ..Grams/Bentley.. 02/18/2021
There’s more click here.