SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z


A couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible through
mid-evening across the Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.

...FL Panhandle to south GA...
Categorical risk areas have been mainly adjusted to decrease the
western and northern extent with a persistent, low probability
tornado environment expected to continue into this evening.

Overall lightning trends have decreased somewhat through late
morning within a swath of scattered convection that is elevated from
the eastern Carolinas to surface-based over the northeast Gulf. The
surface warm sector characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dew
points resides across the central to eastern Panhandle and north FL
into a portion of south-central to southeast GA. A lack of stratus
in north FL to southeast GA will result in more robust
boundary-layer heating and the front reaching the Savannah to
southwest GA vicinity before oscillating back south later today.
This heating will likely be necessary to aid in sustaining
surface-based thunderstorm redevelopment given the weak mid-level
lapse rates evident in 12Z observed soundings across FL.

Low-level southwesterlies should be strongest at present and slowly
subside into this evening, but at least 40 kt flow will likely
persist through late afternoon. With a lack of cyclogenesis,
low-level hodographs, while adequate for supercell development, are
unlikely to broadly improve. This suggests the severe threat may
remain conditional, and require convection to develop/spread towards
the warmer boundary layer farther east. A weakening trend should
ensue after sunset as the boundary layer cools and low-level
hodographs become increasingly marginal.

..Grams/Bentley.. 02/18/2021

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