SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the upper Great Lakes to the western Gulf of Mexico will shift east on Friday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast late in the period. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over the southern Plains will develop eastward toward the mid-South. Meanwhile, a cold front draped across northern FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will push southeastward. The front should depart the southern FL Peninsula and move over the FL Straits overnight. While forecast guidance indicates mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s ahead of the front, severe potential is expected to remain low. This is in part due to weak low level convergence along the front and weak upper forcing. Furthermore, poor midlevel lapse rates will limit instability, with MLCAPE to 500 J/kg forecast. The combination of weak forcing and limited instability should keep thunderstorm activity isolated. Moderate shear will exist across the area, with 30-40 kt southwesterly flow around 850-700 mb. This could result in a couple of briefly strong storms capable of gusty winds, but even any relatively stronger activity is expected to remain below severe thresholds. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2021
There’s more click here.