SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the upper Great Lakes to the western Gulf of
Mexico will shift east on Friday, moving offshore the Atlantic coast
late in the period. At the surface, strong high pressure centered
over the southern Plains will develop eastward toward the mid-South.
Meanwhile, a cold front draped across northern FL and the eastern
Gulf of Mexico will push southeastward. The front should depart the
southern FL Peninsula and move over the FL Straits overnight. While
forecast guidance indicates mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and
temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s ahead of the front, severe
potential is expected to remain low. This is in part due to weak low
level convergence along the front and weak upper forcing.
Furthermore, poor midlevel lapse rates will limit instability, with
MLCAPE to 500 J/kg forecast. The combination of weak forcing and
limited instability should keep thunderstorm activity isolated.
Moderate shear will exist across the area, with 30-40 kt
southwesterly flow around 850-700 mb. This could result in a couple
of briefly strong storms capable of gusty winds, but even any
relatively stronger activity is expected to remain below severe
thresholds.

..Leitman.. 02/18/2021

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