Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should move across the central/eastern CONUS from
Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Low-level moisture ahead of this
system will likely remain insufficient for any organized severe
thunderstorm risk. There are some indications in medium-range
guidance that another upper trough may amplify over the western
CONUS around Day 6/Tuesday through the end of the period. If this
occurs, then low-level moisture return across the southern Plains
and lower MS Valley could potentially support a risk for organized
storms by Day 8/Thursday. However, there are large differences in
guidance regarding the timing and amplification of the potential
upper trough at this extended time frame, leading to low
predictability.

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