Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move across the central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Low-level moisture ahead of this system will likely remain insufficient for any organized severe thunderstorm risk. There are some indications in medium-range guidance that another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS around Day 6/Tuesday through the end of the period. If this occurs, then low-level moisture return across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley could potentially support a risk for organized storms by Day 8/Thursday. However, there are large differences in guidance regarding the timing and amplification of the potential upper trough at this extended time frame, leading to low predictability.
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