SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander towards the Atlantic Seaboard during the day while a second trough begins to deepen across the Interior West late in the period. At the surface, a cold front will continue to sweep across the Florida Peninsula, with cooler/drier air ushering in behind the front across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Low-level convergence and modest buoyancy along and ahead of the front is expected to foster a line of isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms moving across the Florida Peninsula during the late morning to late afternoon hours. Given poor lapse rates aloft and weak deep-layer directional shear, the risk for isolated severe storms appears too low to address with probabilities at this time. Behind the front, more stable conditions will prevail, limiting convective potential in most locales. One exception may be parts of the West Coast into the Interior West during the 00-12Z period, where deep-layer ascent associated with the deepening trough and very scant buoyancy may promote a lightning flash or two. ..Squitieri/Jewell.. 02/19/2021
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