SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

A mid-level trough will meander towards the Atlantic Seaboard during
the day while a second trough begins to deepen across the Interior
West late in the period. At the surface, a cold front will continue
to sweep across the Florida Peninsula, with cooler/drier air
ushering in behind the front across much of the central/eastern
CONUS. Low-level convergence and modest buoyancy along and ahead of
the front is expected to foster a line of isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorms moving across the Florida Peninsula during
the late morning to late afternoon hours. Given poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer directional shear, the risk for isolated
severe storms appears too low to address with probabilities at this
time. Behind the front, more stable conditions will prevail,
limiting convective potential in most locales. One exception may be
parts of the West Coast into the Interior West during the 00-12Z
period, where deep-layer ascent associated with the deepening trough
and very scant buoyancy may promote a lightning flash or two.

..Squitieri/Jewell.. 02/19/2021

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