SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that one short wave impulse will progress inland across the British Columbia coast and Canadian Rockies during this period, through the crest of initially amplified large-scale ridging near/west of the Pacific coast, with another impulse trailing close behind across the northeastern Pacific. As this occurs, downstream troughing, including a couple of smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to turn east of the central Great Plains and southern Rockies. Models differ concerning the evolution of the shorter wavelength features, but weak to modest cyclogenesis appears possible in association with the lead impulse, from the south central Great Plains into lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. A trailing cold front appears likely to advance across and east the Mississippi Valley, and southward across the northwestern Gulf coast. Despite the potentially favorable large-scale ascent associated with this developing system, destabilization, including within the evolving warm sector, will continue to be hampered by weak moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, lingering melting snow and ice, and low cloudiness associated with the return flow above the residual cool near-surface air mass. At this time, potential for thunderstorms appears negligible Sunday through Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 02/19/2021
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