SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Sunday through Sunday night.

Models indicate that one short wave impulse will progress inland
across the British Columbia coast and Canadian Rockies during this
period, through the crest of initially amplified large-scale ridging
near/west of the Pacific coast, with another impulse trailing close
behind across the northeastern Pacific.  As this occurs, downstream
troughing, including a couple of smaller-scale perturbations, is
forecast to turn east of the central Great Plains and southern
Rockies.  Models differ concerning the evolution of the shorter
wavelength features, but weak to modest cyclogenesis appears
possible in association with the lead impulse, from the south
central Great Plains into lower Michigan by 12Z Monday.  A trailing
cold front appears likely to advance across and east the Mississippi
Valley, and southward across the northwestern Gulf coast.  

Despite the potentially favorable large-scale ascent associated with
this developing system, destabilization, including within the
evolving warm sector, will continue to be hampered by weak moisture
return from the Gulf of Mexico, lingering melting snow and ice, and
low cloudiness associated with the return flow above the residual
cool near-surface air mass.  At this time, potential for
thunderstorms appears negligible Sunday through Sunday night.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2021

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