SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z


A couple of stronger storms could occur today across the central
Florida Peninsula, but the potential for organized severe
thunderstorms should remain low.

A progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S.
today, as one trough shifts across eastern portions of the country
and a second moves onshore over the West, during the overnight
portion of the period.

At the surface, cold high pressure will continue to prevail east of
the Rockies, with a cold front -- at the leading edge of the polar
airmass -- moves steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula.

A band of showers -- with a couple of embedded lightning flashes --
is accompanying the southward progression of the front across
Florida.  While low 70s surface dewpoints characterize the
pre-frontal airmass which -- combined with ongoing daytime heating
-- are contributing to 500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, weak lapse
rates aloft will continue to hinder more appreciable
destabilization.  Additional, moderate/unidirectional flow aloft --
roughly aligned with the surface front -- is also not particularly
favorable for well-organized convection.  While a couple of stronger
storms could produce gusty winds through this afternoon, any severe
risk remains too low to warrant inclusion of any risk areas.

Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may occur late in the period,
near the northern California coast as the aforementioned upper
trough crosses the area overnight.

..Goss/Darrow.. 02/19/2021

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