SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of stronger storms could occur today across the central Florida Peninsula, but the potential for organized severe thunderstorms should remain low. ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as one trough shifts across eastern portions of the country and a second moves onshore over the West, during the overnight portion of the period. At the surface, cold high pressure will continue to prevail east of the Rockies, with a cold front -- at the leading edge of the polar airmass -- moves steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula. A band of showers -- with a couple of embedded lightning flashes -- is accompanying the southward progression of the front across Florida. While low 70s surface dewpoints characterize the pre-frontal airmass which -- combined with ongoing daytime heating -- are contributing to 500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, weak lapse rates aloft will continue to hinder more appreciable destabilization. Additional, moderate/unidirectional flow aloft -- roughly aligned with the surface front -- is also not particularly favorable for well-organized convection. While a couple of stronger storms could produce gusty winds through this afternoon, any severe risk remains too low to warrant inclusion of any risk areas. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may occur late in the period, near the northern California coast as the aforementioned upper trough crosses the area overnight. ..Goss/Darrow.. 02/19/2021
There’s more click here.