SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across a portion of the Great
Basin this afternoon.

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will promote cool, dry low-level conditions
across much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting deep moist
convective potential. Across the Interior West though, a mid-level
trough will traverse the area while amplifying. Cold 700-500 mb
temperatures accompanying the approaching trough will result in
steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, fostering enough buoyancy in
the -10 to 30C layer to support some charge separation in any
convective updrafts that develop. Deep-layer ascent ahead of the
trough axis may help mechanically lift low-level parcels to the
-10-30C layer, with a couple of thunderstorms possible, mainly
during the afternoon hours.

..Squitieri.. 02/20/2021

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