SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the Great
Basin this afternoon.

...Great Basin this afternoon...
No changes to previous outlook.  A midlevel shortwave trough and an
associated baroclinic zone will move over NV/UT this afternoon, and
reach the Four Corners tonight.  Steep low-midlevel lapse rates will
allow weak surface-based buoyancy to develop this afternoon, and
some low-topped convection is expected in the zone of ascent along
the baroclinic zone.  Relatively cool profiles will tend to limit
buoyancy and suggest that most of the precipitation will fall as
snow.  It appears that the somewhat greater threat for isolated
lightning flashes will be this afternoon when the low levels are

..Thompson.. 02/20/2021

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