SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Sunday through Sunday night.

A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the mid MO Valley
southwestward through the central Rockies and into the Desert
Southwest early Sunday morning. At the same time, the surface low
attendant to this shortwave will likely be centered over
south-central KS/north-central OK. Expectation is for the parent
shortwave to move quickly eastward, ending the period extended from 
Lower MI through the mid MS Valley and into the southern Plains. The
surface low is expected to move northeastward just ahead of the
shortwave, ending the period over Lower MI. Some modest deepening of
this low is expected for the first half of the period before it
occludes late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Cold front
associated with this low will sweep eastward/southeastward,
traversing much of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. 

Moderate to strong forcing for ascent will accompanying this
shortwave and attendant surface low/cold front. However, only modest
modification of the prevailing arctic air mass has occurred,  and
any return moisture remains mostly offshore. As such, scant buoyancy
is expected preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 02/20/2021

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