SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the mid MO Valley southwestward through the central Rockies and into the Desert Southwest early Sunday morning. At the same time, the surface low attendant to this shortwave will likely be centered over south-central KS/north-central OK. Expectation is for the parent shortwave to move quickly eastward, ending the period extended from Lower MI through the mid MS Valley and into the southern Plains. The surface low is expected to move northeastward just ahead of the shortwave, ending the period over Lower MI. Some modest deepening of this low is expected for the first half of the period before it occludes late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Cold front associated with this low will sweep eastward/southeastward, traversing much of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Moderate to strong forcing for ascent will accompanying this shortwave and attendant surface low/cold front. However, only modest modification of the prevailing arctic air mass has occurred, and any return moisture remains mostly offshore. As such, scant buoyancy is expected preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 02/20/2021
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