SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the Great Basin this afternoon. ...20Z Update... A few lightning strikes are still possible ahead of the shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin. No lightning is expected elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Mosier.. 02/20/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ ...Great Basin this afternoon... No changes to previous outlook. A midlevel shortwave trough and an associated baroclinic zone will move over NV/UT this afternoon, and reach the Four Corners tonight. Steep low-midlevel lapse rates will allow weak surface-based buoyancy to develop this afternoon, and some low-topped convection is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone. Relatively cool profiles will tend to limit buoyancy and suggest that most of the precipitation will fall as snow. It appears that the somewhat greater threat for isolated lightning flashes will be this afternoon when the low levels are warmest.
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