SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the Great
Basin this afternoon.

...20Z Update...
A few lightning strikes are still possible ahead of the shortwave
trough moving through the Great Basin. No lightning is expected
elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier.. 02/20/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/

...Great Basin this afternoon...
No changes to previous outlook.  A midlevel shortwave trough and an
associated baroclinic zone will move over NV/UT this afternoon, and
reach the Four Corners tonight.  Steep low-midlevel lapse rates will
allow weak surface-based buoyancy to develop this afternoon, and
some low-topped convection is expected in the zone of ascent along
the baroclinic zone.  Relatively cool profiles will tend to limit
buoyancy and suggest that most of the precipitation will fall as
snow.  It appears that the somewhat greater threat for isolated
lightning flashes will be this afternoon when the low levels are
warmest.

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