SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S today. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will track across the central U.S through the period. Ahead of the trough axis, strong westerly flow aloft is expected to overspread the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, particularly by late afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong forcing for ascent will promote the development of widespread rain showers ahead of a cold front while a surface low drifts towards the Great Lakes. Despite strong, deep-layer flow fields and lift ahead of the cold front, buoyancy is expected to be absent across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys given poor low-level airmass recovery in the warm sector and mediocre tropospheric lapse rates. While showers may promote occasionally gusty conditions, thunderstorm development appears unlikely, with no general thunder areas delineated. Across the western U.S, widespread surface high pressure and cool/dry conditions are expected to mitigate thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 02/21/2021
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