SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


Organized thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S

A positively tilted mid-level trough will track across the central
U.S through the period. Ahead of the trough axis, strong westerly
flow aloft is expected to overspread the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys,
particularly by late afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong
forcing for ascent will promote the development of widespread rain
showers ahead of a cold front while a surface low drifts towards the
Great Lakes. Despite strong, deep-layer flow fields and lift ahead
of the cold front, buoyancy is expected to be absent across the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys given poor low-level airmass recovery in the
warm sector and mediocre tropospheric lapse rates. While showers may
promote occasionally gusty conditions, thunderstorm development
appears unlikely, with no general thunder areas delineated. Across
the western U.S, widespread surface high pressure and cool/dry
conditions are expected to mitigate thunderstorm development.

..Squitieri.. 02/21/2021

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