SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward over northern MO and IA today, and the OH Valley tonight. Lingering steep lapse rates above the 700 mb level will support some midlevel convective elements, where ascent is focused by low-level warm advection and within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet over IA. However, profiles will likely remain too cold for any appreciable threat for lightning flashes. Otherwise, a modifying air mass will spread northward across the Gulf coast in advance of a cold front, but destabilization will likely remain insufficient for deep convection. ..Thompson.. 02/21/2021
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