SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through

A positive-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward over
northern MO and IA today, and the OH Valley tonight.  Lingering
steep lapse rates above the 700 mb level will support some midlevel
convective elements, where ascent is focused by low-level warm
advection and within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet over
IA.  However, profiles will likely remain too cold for any
appreciable threat for lightning flashes.  Otherwise, a modifying
air mass will spread northward across the Gulf coast in advance of a
cold front, but destabilization will likely remain insufficient for
deep convection.

..Thompson.. 02/21/2021

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